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Posts Tagged ‘Congressional Budget Office’

Concerns about SSA funding continue–especially for SSDI benefits

Wednesday, August 31st, 2011

SSDI benefits exempt from many creditors, but funding hammered by high, chronic unemployment

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We’ve addressed this before, but with the debt-ceiling debate, US credit downgrade and endless political posturing, it’s probably a good time to once again discuss the financial health of Social Security overall and the SSDI and SSI programs in particular.

Experts warn of shortfalls in retirement and disability benefits

As we’ve written before, Social Security itself has been declared to be OK until about 2036; in other words, if nothing changes between now and then, the fund will be able to pay out only about 75 per cent of scheduled payments. Medicare is in slightly worse shape, but SSDI (Social Security Disability Insurance) will be busted sometime between 2015 to 2018.

SSDI could run dry as early as 2015

According to long Wall Street Journal piece on SSDI payments increasing in Puerto Rico (but also instructive for its good info on the SSDI national status), “The SSDI is set to soon become the first big federal benefit program to run out of cash—and one of the main reasons is U.S. states and territories have a large say in who qualifies for the federally funded program. Without changes, the Social Security retirement fund can survive intact through about 2040 and Medicare through 2029. The disability fund, however, will run dry in four to seven years without federal intervention, government auditors say.”

Applications have risen along with increased unemployment

According to an Aug. 22 account at Politico.com:

The Social Security disability fund is fast running out of money and may not be able to make payments starting in 2017, thanks in part to the bad economy driving claims up over the past decade, The Associated Press reported.

Applications for benefit claims have risen almost 50 percent in the past 10 years, as many people with disabilities are laid off and cannot find new jobs in the difficult job market. And, the AP added, the rush for benefits is causing a major backup for applicants currently waiting to get their cases decided.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates the disability trust fund will be exhausted by 2017 unless Congress acts. If the fund’s balance falls to zero, it cannot pay out full benefits unless the law is altered. And it’s not the only benefit fund that’s nearly insolvent: In 2040, the CBO projects, Social Security’s retirement fund will also be out of cash.

So, the exact years are in question, but the timeframes are roughly equivalent.

One concern: the ‘multiplier effect’

And it’s not only the SSDI direct benefits that add to the bill. From the NYT’s piece, which gives a dollar figure of benefits in Puerto Rico as averaging a “modest” $1,064 a month:

But the program opens up access for recipients to other government programs, multiplying the ultimate cost to taxpayers.

Anyone who spends two years on SSDI qualifies for the Medicare health program, which usually is available only for those 65 years old and older. SSDI recipients tend to remain tethered to the program for years, and the government’s lifetime financial commitment averages $300,000 per person, estimates David Autor, an SSDI expert who teaches at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “The system has profound problems,” Mr. Autor said.

SSDI’s financial woes pose a major test for the White House and Congress, which have been reluctant to tackle the budget-busting costs of entitlements.

Analysts who track the program say the only short-term way to save it without raising taxes would be to fold it into the fund that pays Social Security. That would likely force retirees to face benefit cuts two or three years sooner than they otherwise would have done, because SSDI costs would diminish retirement funds.

SS & SSDI fundings have been combined before

Various sources agree that Social Security (retirement) and SSDI (disability payments) were, in fact, temporarily combined in 1994, as a stopgap, emergency measure. What I’ve not understood, yet–although I do get it about the “multipliers–is how can payroll-funded benefits be such a problem?

In other words, if unemployment is the prime factor, i.e. joblessness strains the system via reduced payroll-tax contributions, then why doesn’t the system seem to care more about unemployment?

Weeding out beneficiaries who ‘sneak back to work’

SSI is not funded by payroll deductions but by the general revenue fund. In other words, a work history is not required to qualify. However, it is much more restrictive. According to the AP, a chronic problem–which we’ve reported about–is lack of review that would spot beneficiaries who have gotten work but kept taking benefits:

Today, about 13.6 million people receive disability benefits through Social Security or Supplemental Security Income. Social Security is for people with substantial work histories, and monthly disability payments average $927. Supplemental Security Income does not require a work history but it has strict limits on income and assets. Monthly SSI payments average $500.

As policymakers work to improve the disability system, they are faced with two major issues: Legitimate applicants often have to wait years to get benefits while many others get payments they don’t deserve.

Last year, Social Security detected $1.4 billion in overpayments to disability beneficiaries, mostly to people who got jobs and no longer qualified, according to a recent report by the Government Accountability Office, the investigative arm of Congress.

Delays can leave unpaid bills piled high

Another concern, according this piece at credit.com, is the delay and lag-time in receiving benefits. As mentioned, the influx of applicants from the unemployed adds to the delay. So what shape are beneficiaries in when they finally begin receiving payments?

For many recipients, Social Security Disability Income (SSDI) and/or Supplemental Security Income (SSI) are their financial lifeline. Their more immediate concern may not be what happens in Washington to save the program, but what happens today to the money they receive. I couldn’t find any statistics about how many SSDI and SSI recipients have past-due bills, but if our email is any indication, plenty of them are struggling and getting calls from creditors or debt collectors threatening to take the little income they do get each month. And because it takes so long to get approved for disability these days, applicants may find themselves already in the hole by the time they start receiving benefits.

Benefits not shielded from child support, taxes or student loans

However, there’s a bright spot in that few creditors can successfully come after these benefits. Again from credit.com: “For those who rely on these benefits, the good news is that they are generally protected from creditors and debt collectors. However there are exceptions in the case of past-due child support, past-due taxes, and federal student loans. “ ‘They can chase you (for student loans) to the grave,’ warns bankruptcy attorney Cathy Moran.”

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Social Security: scary truths, or hoary scare tactics?

Saturday, July 31st, 2010

House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) has taken some heat over supposed comments about raising the age for Social Security in order to fund the war. A quick search shows the Dems and GOP may be playing tit for tat (although Boehner did introduce legislation that would have hacked VA funding–but the three proposals were withdrawn at the last minute).

One thing is certain, though: in the national debate about the soundness of Social Security, confusion reigns.  It’s important to understand the arguments and get accurate information because although each program has separate funding, the general Social Security retirement benefits, Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI), and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) are all administered by the Social Security Administration. In fact, some of the confusion over retirement benefits may have come about due to a recent discouraging report about SSDI from the Congressional Budget Office (more in Part 2).

Dividing the debate into two camps, we have on one end of the spectrum the Sky-is-Falling group, who maintain Social Security is doomed without drastic intervention; the other side we might label as the Hogwash group, who maintain not only is the general Social Security fund in good shape but also that Sky Fallers are blowing things out of proportion in an attempt to scare people into accepting fewer benefits.

This is from poughkeepsiejournal.com (July 27), an example of the Falling Sky position:

“A recent congressional report paints a bleak picture, indeed. It says Social Security could run out of money in about 17 years, as the program now pays out more money in benefits than it collects in payroll taxes. It faces a staggering $5.3 trillion shortfall over the next 75 years, unless changes are made. No wonder a recent USA Today/Gallup Poll showed that public confidence in the system is waning.

“The solvency of Social Security affects everyone. The program, the main source of income for millions of retirees, is financed by a 6.2 percent payroll tax on wages below $106,800. The tax is paid by workers and matched by employers. Currently, 53 million Americans get Social Security benefits averaging $1,067 a month.”

The Hogwashers say that’s baloney, designed to get you riled up then despondent enough to accept less–eventually. For instance, here’s an edited version of the  Top Five Social Security Myths from MoveOn.org (read there for the full text, including footnotes and citations):

Myth: Social Security is going broke.

Reality: There is no Social Security crisis. By 2023, Social Security will have a $4.3 trillion surplus (yes, trillion with a ‘T’). It can pay out all scheduled benefits for the next quarter-century with no changes whatsoever.1 After 2037, it’ll still be able to pay out 75% of scheduled benefits–and again, that’s without any changes. The program started preparing for the Baby Boomers retirement decades ago.2 Anyone who insists Social Security is broke probably wants to break it themselves.

Myth: We have to raise the retirement age because people are living longer.

Reality: This is a red-herring to trick you into agreeing to benefit cuts. Retirees are living about the same amount of time as they were in the 1930s. The reason average life expectancy is higher is mostly because many fewer people die as children than did 70 years ago.3 What’s more, what gains there have been are distributed very unevenly–since 1972, life expectancy increased by 6.5 years for workers in the top half of the income brackets, but by less than 2 years for those in the bottom half.4 But those intent on cutting Social Security love this argument because raising the retirement age is the same as an across-the-board benefit cut.

Myth: The Social Security Trust Fund has been raided and is full of IOUs.

Reality: Not even close to true. The Social Security Trust Fund isn’t full of IOUs, it’s full of U.S. Treasury Bonds. And those bonds are backed by the full faith and credit of the United States.7 The reason Social Security holds only treasury bonds is the same reason many Americans do: The federal government has never missed a single interest payment on its debts.

Myth: Benefit cuts are the only way to fix Social Security.

Reality: Social Security doesn’t need to be fixed. But if we want to strengthen it, here’s a better way: Make the rich pay their fair share. If the very rich paid taxes on all of their income, Social Security would be sustainable for decades to come.5 Right now, high earners only pay Social Security taxes on the first $106,000 of their income.6

Myth: Social Security adds to the deficit

Reality: It’s not just wrong — it’s impossible! By law, Social Security funds are separate from the budget, and it must pay its own way. That means that Social Security can’t add one penny to the deficit.1

Perhaps there is a mid-position, though. A July 30 “Your Money” column in The New York Times takes the stance that even though the long-terms threats will have to be dealt with, Social Security in the near-term is in good shape. The column takes a look at worst-case scenarios for a test-case couple and makes suggestions about increased savings. We’ll examine that and the very real problem facing SSDI in Part 2.